Showing posts with label EU Referendum. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU Referendum. Show all posts

Friday, 12 January 2018

On Nigel Farage and a deal referendum

Two posts on consecutive days? That's not something that's happened for a long time! Although this is, essentially, a re-hash of some thoughts I posted on Twitter earlier.

There was much excitement amongst "Remain"* campaigners today when Nigel Farage announced he was beginning to come round to the idea of a second^ referendum. His thinking being that a second** "leave" win would kill off any further thoughts of re-entering the Union "for a generation". On this last point he is right - just as it took dissenters^^ from the 1975 result over a generation to reverse that decision.

(Of course, for all his talk of the finality of the 2016 vote - the day democracy stopped, folks - we know that his campaign would have continued had the result gone the other way by, well, by any margin.)

Anyway, lots of people jumped on this news - arch remainers*** Ian Dunt, AC Grayling and Nick Clegg, amongst others, made hay whilst the Lib Dem Press Team and prominent spokespeople went to town on the news.

But why? Or, at least, why the lack of trepidation?


I mean, it's not as if Farage hasn't a record of being disingenuous, is it?

Now, I know that the polls are showing a lead for remain over leave now - and that is welcome, as far as it goes. But for the majority of the population, the matter is settled, so the question is considered moot. If it were to be reopened, whether on the nature of the deal agreed or otherwise, the numbers would rapidly change - and the narrative and tone of debate would be even worse than before.

Now, this isn't intended as a council of despair - but it is intended as a dose of realism. It's also not intended as an argument against having a deal referendum. That's a policy I support, albeit I would have liked the party to have also adopted a line that categorically said election of a Lib Dem majority government^^^ prior to actually leaving would be a mandate to reverse the process. Would such a policy have made a difference at the last election? I doubt it, but I'm not about to second guess when the next election may be, the role Brexit may or may not have in that, or the outcome.

No, I support the policy on the pragmatic grounds, outlined in part in this exchange:


Put simply, I think the restoration and exercise of Parliamentary Sovereignty followed by the throwing out of Brexit would plunge this country into a much greater level of turmoil than another referendum. I'm not suggesting war, but there would be substantial civil unrest and political instability. In addition, the forces of xenophobia, Islamophobia and racism (not to mention other forms of hate and discrimination) that the Brexit vote has given licence to would then be unleashed in a way we have not seen in a century.

So, back to Farage. He has his own agenda, and we ought to be very, very careful in the way we react to his pronouncements. Rather than reacting with glee, his words should give us pause.



*One of the things I bitterly, bitterly despair about is the way Brexit colours *everything* in our political debate, and huge swathes of people identify, or are identified as, "Remainers" or "Leavers" without either side seeking to engage with the other. There is a lot of speaking in echo chambers, or slinging mud, insults, sneers and jeers at the "other side" and not a lot of anything constructive. And, before anyone else says it, I don't consider consider myself blameless in this regard, although I do try to avoid sneering: that's just not a pleasant, or Liberal, thing to do.

^Shorthand. I prefer to call it a deal referendum. Or "a first referendum on the facts." But as far as a choice between staying in or leaving the EU/EC is concerned, we've had two of those already.

**in short order.

^^Farage himself would have been only 11 at the time when 67% of those who voted opted to secure a brighter future for themselves and future generations.

***Gah, even I'm doing it now.

^^^I know, I know.

Tuesday, 8 November 2016

What I think Lib Dem MPs should do on invoking Article 50.

Over recent years, my blogging has become quite limited. Parallel to this, my political thoughts have been increasing expressed on Facebook - either through status updates shared with friends, or in discussions on various pages, profiles and groups.

A couple of months ago, I set up my own *public* Facebook Page as an halfway house between full-on blogging and those ad-hoc debate contributions. You can find that page here, and the latest entry below.


To my mind there are two main aspects to the decision:


The "Respecting the Will of the People" argument.

Whether we like it or not, the nuance* of the fact that the referendum was advisory, or that MPs are representatives not delegates, is lost on people. Further, one** of the reasons many people voted "Leave" was to kick out against a system that they perceive doesn't represent them whether in Europe, Westminster or their local Town Hall.

Set against this, is the fact that all Lib Dem MPs were elected on a manifesto that proclaimed our commitment to the EU, and that we were active campaigners for "Remain" in both our own right and as part of Stronger IN***.

If a Commons vote were *just* on Article 50, then I would be comfortable with MPs splitting between abstaining and voting against, depending on their own view of the weight to be given to the referendum result, either nationally or in their own constituency.

But the vote will not be context-less. Whether or not it any motion put to MPs expressly refers to the terms of negotiation, there are likely to be indications from government as to what outcome they are seeking. Which brings us to...


The "what type of Brexit is it to be" argument.

The referendum result was only clear in delivering a "Leave" result but this was as a result of a coalition of people voting Leave for many different reasons - "Hard Brexit" would have been unlikely to command the same majority. It is this that makes this second argument over how to proceed so key.

Post referendum, the party laid out a list of "key issues for negotiation" as part of a post-referendum policy which also called for parliament to have a vote on Article 50.****

I took this - and still do - to be a list of our red-lines***** in consenting to any negotiation. As a result, I would expect us to vote against triggering Article 50 if these points have not been positively addressed: something which seems unlikely at present.

I started this piece expecting it to be more ambivalent than it turns out. As things stand, though, I can't see how our MPs can't vote against given that the government seems bent on hard Brexit.

But there is a balance to this that, to me, transcends a simple cry of "we must represent the 48% unequivocally" and which makes our position difficult to "sell" in the meantime. To be honest, I'm not sure how we square the circle without being left open to misrepresentation by the right wing press on the one hand, and the harder fringes of the 48 on the other.

I suppose the position above could be outlined as: "We respect the result of the referendum although we continue to believe that leaving the EU would be bad for Britain. Should the government pursue an agenda of hard Brexit, we will vote against this. If it brings forward proposals that satisfy our red lines, we will give them the benefit of the doubt subject to any agreement being put to the people in a referendum including an option to stay in the EU. In any such referendum we will campaign for staying in."

It's not the catchiest soundbite ever...


P.S. If Article 50 is blocked by Parliament (or, at least, the House of Lords) and a snap election results, then I believe we should fight the election on an express commitment to vote against Article 50 in the new Parliament, regardless of the negotiation terms proposed.

*I appreciate this is cold hard legal fact but to many it's incidental to "we had a vote on this"
** There were, of course, many reasons people voted "Leave" including those who just genuinely took a different view of things.
*** Of which the least said, the better, for now...
**** http://www.libdems.org.uk/europe
***** I hope we stick to this list better than we did over our demands on the vote on airstrikes on ISIS in Syria...

Thursday, 16 June 2016

Why I voted to remain in the EU and other stories...


This was to have been a Facebook post until the length of it mitigated against that.

With only a week to go until polling, I've finally got round to outlining some of the reasons that I've voted to REMAIN in the EU - and why I hope you, and the country, will too.

Before I do, though, I'm going to share a few words on the campaign itself and my feelings as the ballot - and the result - approaches. (Note, this turns out to be more than a few words - so please feel free to jump to the second section below.)

Neither side has covered themselves in glory. It strikes me that there has been a great deal of negative campaigning on both sides - although sadly, such tactics have been proven to be successful in the past.

I had hoped that lessons would be learnt from the Scottish Referendum - and in particular the way the "Yes" camp energised and enthused large swathes of the electorate there, particularly the young.

Sadly, that was not to be.

Instead, this has, in some respects, been a retread of the AV debate - with the Leave side repeating some of the anti-AV arguments ("we could spend this money on the NHS") and the Remain side being poorly organised and co-ordinated with Labour not pulling their weight.

Of course, for the AV referendum they had some excuses: that was on the same day as local elections (which isn't a recipe for cross-party working) and they weren't inclined to give succour to Lib Dems in coalition with the Tories despite AV having been in their own 2010 manifesto.

This time a heavyweight blue on blue battle has meant the media has had an irresistable narrative, which coupled with a Labour leader whose support can charitably be described as half-hearted and who won't share a platform with the Tories has created a perfect storm. (I also fear that too many sat back and enjoyed the Tory fight with scant attention to the impact on traditional Labour voters, the body politic or, indeed, the prospects for the government after the poll, whatever way it goes.)

Not only has a Labour narrative been missing, but the Remain campaign - at the political level at least - has lacked real authoritative voices. This is, I fear, a sad reflection on the current state of the Labour party - and, indeed, the dire straits of my own party.

Sadly, the Lib Dems are considered an irrelevance as far as the media is concerned. Our 8 MPs could strip naked and run across Westminster Bridge and it would merit barely a mention in the news. Our apparent (though not actual) silence is ironic, given that we united on our EU membership in a way that the big two parties aren't and that we have one of the biggest beasts in the debate: Paddy Ashdown.

I've seen Paddy on the stump a couple of times in this campaign. He is head and shoulders above most people in modern politics. I can think of no-one else who brings his wealth of experience - military, political and diplomatic - to the table. In different times, he would be reaching millions on the telly, rather than dozens and hundreds at rallies across the country.

Whilst on the subject of heavyweights, I must make mention of Charles Kennedy who is still hugely missed - and whose contribution would have been invaluable to the debate. Here's a flavour of what he may have said.

Which, tenuously, brings us back to Scotland... rather than learning the lessons of the Yes campaign, Stronger IN seems destined to ape Better Together: right down to similar arguments re pensions and prices, and late contributions from Gordon Brown (whose political capital is worth less in Bank of England notes than those of the Scottish banks).

In the weeks leading up to the Scottish vote, people remarked on how keyed-up I was. I simultaneously felt helpless, wishing I was part of the campaign, and thankful I wasn't involved in the whole sorry mess. In the latter weeks, I was genuinely worried: I want a Federal UK - and, to my mind, independence isn't a route to that.

This time, I have been involved. Not, granted, as much as I would like. Whilst the timing is better than with the AV referendum, I and many others were engaged in election campaigns - and the natural inclination after the 5th of May was to, well, relax and attempt and get their lives back (or to adapt to their new roles, for those who were successful).

The bulk of the work, in those places which had May elections, was picked up by non party political people, which is great. Despite popular perceptions about "political elites", in my experience political people genuinely welcome the involvement of others; many hands make lighter work and/or get more done. What this has meant, however, is that the integration of activists into the campaign has been difficult and the co-ordination and co-operation hasn't quite been as slick as it could have been.

Am I as worried as I was in 2014? I'm not sure, although the chances of a remain vote look more doubtful now than they have done at any point in the campaign. I fear I am resigned to an outcome that means that, whatever happens, Britain is in for a long period of political uncertainty: to the detriment of us all.


So, why have I voted for Remain? After all, that's what this piece is supposed to be about.

Mainly, it's because I'm an internationalist. I believe that, as human beings, we can achieve more together than apart. Quite aside from the benefits to trade of being part of a single market, the economies of scale achieved when competing on the world stage and the greater bargaining power when negotiating treaties with other countries and blocs, there are a number of challenges and issues we face that transcend borders and are better tackled together.

From combating organised crime (including terrorist activity), to managing migrations from war-zones and other troubled areas around the world, to tackling climate change: coordination across borders is required, and better achieved within the existing structure we have - as a bloc - than in more discrete units.

Is the EU perfect at dealing with these issues? Of course not. In particular, its management of the current Syrian refugee crisis is failing - and potentially storing up greater problems for the future. But the current administration in Britain hasn't covered itself in glory on that issue either - and you know what they say about glass houses and stones...

Does the EU involve compromise? Yes, of course. The c-word is verboten in politics, although its about the only walk of life in which it is. In our personal and working lives, the ability to compromise is a positive, not a negative. Negotiating solutions to problems so as to achieve outcomes acceptable to all parties involved is part and parcel of our everyday lives. Heaven forfend, though, that anyone should seek to apply this in the absolutest world of politics.

(As a Lib Dem, it is impossible to write the above paragraph without alluding to our experience in coalition. Not only did we face constant criticism from many on the "progressive" left who nominally belief in pluralist politics, as believers in PR must, but we got crucified at the polls by our coalition "allies" with whom we had made many compromises. Such, of course, is politics.

It's all too obvious now, though, as the Tories roll back on Lib Dem achievements and roll out the things we blocked (such as the Snoopers' Charter, aided and abetted by Labour) that we did make a difference in the last Government. It begs the question: what lies in store if Leave prevails and Boris, Gove and Grayling ascend to the great offices of state?)

The standard argument against this concept of a club of nations co-operating is that it involves giving up sovereignty. But that is the case with all relationships. When someone sets up home with someone, they give up some personal autonomy. Why? Because they get benefits from doing so.

When we co-operate with our allies in Europe, we get benefits too. We gain from investment in our poorest regions not just here, but abroad. We gain from security that is greater as a result of the easier sharing of information - not weaker as a result of free movement. We gain from the elimination of tariffs within the single market. We gain from the peace that the EU has cemented in the north and west of the continent, and nurtured in the south east. And we've gained from the fostering of democracies in the south, and more recently in the east.

Viewers of Dragons Den will be familiar with the part of the negotiations between the eponymous dragons (most of whom, incidentally, back staying in the EU) seek to maximise their equity share of a potential investment. They drive a hard bargain, as well they might, and you will often hear one of them say something like "Would you rather have 60% of £1m or 80% of nothing?"

So it is with sovereignty. By surrendering some of our sovereignty we make an investment in the creation of a better world for ourselves. In times past, we invested this sovereignty by seeking to dominate the world. The sun never set on our empire and you could traverse Africa from north to south without leaving British soil.

Leaving aside the lasting implications of the colonial approach - which we live with to this day - this view that being sovereign means being a behemoth straddling the world stage is outmoded. In the modern world sovereignty is best exercised not by imposition of will but by judicial use of influence.

There are those who would argue that this isn't true of all countries. And it's not - but the only countries with the scale that gives them the ability to over-ride this principle are China, Russia and America.

Has Britain maximised what it can get out of the EU? Have we driven a bargain as hard as Deborah Meaden or Theo Paphetus might have? Are we making the best use of the influence we could exert? No. Is that an argument for withdrawing - or is it an argument for getting stuck and making things work better for us - and for people throughout the continent? In my book it's the latter.

There are, of course, lots of other reasons: the EU has daily impacts on our lives, has established common standards for goods, services and employment conditions. It has sought to end restrictive and anti-competitive practices. It has brought us an influx of new Britons to fill jobs in our service industries and enrich the cultural mix of our country.

When I first envisaged this piece, I suppose I imagined I would write a list - probably including some of the points in that last paragraph. It took a different tack but it sums up the key reasons why I'm a believer in the EU as an institution, warts and all.

I'll leave the other arguments in favour for others to make - as well as those counter-arguments to those made by the Leave campaign. Instead, I'll finish this piece with a couple of extracts from the Preamble to the Constitution of the Liberal Democrats. As always, it reaffirms that I am in the right party, fighting for what I believe - whatever the ups and downs, and whatever transpires next:
"Recognising that the quest for freedom and justice can never end, we promote human rights and open government, a sustainable economy which serves genuine need, public services of the highest quality, international action based on a recognition of the interdependence of all the world’s peoples and responsible stewardship of the earth and its resources.
[...]
"Our responsibility for justice and liberty cannot be confined by national boundaries; we are committed to fight poverty, oppression, hunger, ignorance, disease and aggression wherever they occur and to promote the free movement of ideas, people, goods and services. Setting aside national sovereignty when necessary, we will work with other countries towards an equitable and peaceful international order and a durable system of common security. Within the European Community we affirm the values of federalism and integration and work for unity based on these principles."